Syndromic surveillance of respiratory infections during protracted conflict: experiences from northern Syria 2016-2021.

OBJECTIVE: Northern Syria faces a large burden of influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI). This study aimed to investigate the trends of Early Warning and Response Network (EWARN) reported ILI and SARI in northern Syria between 2016 and 2021 and the potential impact of SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: We extracted weekly EWARN data on ILI/ SARI and aggregated cases and consultations into 4-week intervals to calculate case positivity. We conducted a seasonal-trend decomposition to assess case trends in the presence of seasonal fluctuations. RESULTS: It was observed that 4-week aggregates of ILI cases (n = 5,942,012), SARI cases (n = 114,939), ILI case positivity, and SARI case positivity exhibited seasonal fluctuations with peaks in the winter months. ILI and SARI cases in individuals aged ≥5 years surpassed those in individuals aged <5 years in late 2019. ILI cases clustered primarily in Aleppo and Idlib, whereas SARI cases clustered in Aleppo, Idlib, Deir Ezzor, and Hassakeh. SARI cases increased sharply in 2021, corresponding with a severe SARS-CoV-2 wave, compared with the steady increase in ILI cases over time. CONCLUSION: Respiratory infections cause widespread morbidity and mortality throughout northern Syria, particularly with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. Strengthened surveillance and access to testing and treatment are critical to manage outbreaks among conflict-affected populations.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission in opposition-controlled Northwest Syria: modeling pandemic responses during political conflict.

INTRODUCTION: Ten years of conflict has displaced more than half of Northwest Syria's (NWS) population and decimated the health system, water and sanitation, and public health infrastructure vital for infectious disease control. The first NWS COVID-19 case was declared on July 9, 2020, but impact estimations in this region are minimal. With the rollout of vaccination and emergence of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant, we aimed to estimate the COVID-19 trajectory in NWS and the potential effects of vaccine coverage and hospital occupancy. METHODS: We conducted a mixed-method study, primarily including modeling projections of COVID-19 transmission scenarios with vaccination strategies using an age-structured, compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model, supported by data from 20 semi-structured interviews with frontline health workers to help contextualize interpretation of modeling results. RESULTS: Modeling suggested that existing low stringency non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) minimally affected COVID-19 transmission. Maintaining existing NPIs after the Delta variant introduction is predicted to result in a second COVID-19 wave, overwhelming hospital capacity and resulting in a fourfold increased death toll. Simulations with up to 60% vaccination coverage by June 2022 predict that a second wave is not preventable with current NPIs. However, 60% vaccination coverage by June 2022 combined with 50% coverage of mask-wearing and handwashing should reduce the number of hospital beds and ventilators needed below current capacity levels. In the worst-case scenario of a more transmissible and lethal variant emerging by January 2022, the third wave is predicted. CONCLUSION: Total COVID-19 attributable deaths are expected to remain relatively low owing largely to a young population. Given the negative socioeconomic consequences of restrictive NPIs, such as border or school closures for an already deeply challenged population and their relative ineffectiveness in this context, policymakers and international partners should instead focus on increasing COVID-19 vaccination coverage as rapidly as possible and encouraging mask-wearing.

The need for protecting and enhancing TB health policies and services for forcibly displaced and migrant populations during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Disruption of health services due to the COVID-19 pandemic threatens to derail progress being made in tuberculosis control efforts. Forcibly displaced people and migrant populations face particular vulnerabilities as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, which leaves them at further risk of developing TB. They inhabit environments where measures such as "physical distancing" are impossible to realize and where facilities like camps and informal temporary settlements can easily become sites of rapid disease transmission. In this viewpoint we utilize three case studies-from Peru, South Africa, and Syria-to illustrate the lived experience of forced migration and mobile populations, and the impact of COVID-19 on TB among these populations. We discuss the dual pandemics of TB and COVID-19 in the context of migration through a syndemic lens, to systematically address the upstream social, economic, structural and political factors that - in often deleterious dynamics - foster increased vulnerabilities and risk. Addressing TB, COVID-19 and migration from a syndemic perspective, not only draws systematic attention to comorbidity and the relevance of social and structural context, but also helps to find solutions: the true reality of syndemic interactions can only be fully understood by considering a particular population and bio- social context, and ensuring that they receive the comprehensive care that they need. It also provides avenues for strengthening and expanding the existing infrastructure for TB care to tackle both COVID-19 and TB in migrants and refugees in an integrated and synergistic manner.